Economic Cycle

“Generally speaking, bad news tends to develop on the installment plan, and the first earnings revision is usually not the last.”

“The market cycle of the future may prove to be surprisingly independent of the business cycle, and it may even exist if there is no business cycle — which is in itself quite an assumption, but not an entire impossibility.”

“Most investors mistake a cyclical recovery for a secular trend”

“I don’t say people are irrational. I speak of reasonableness.”

“In speaking of future prospects it is often difficult to make the distinction clear between what one considers the most desirable in the public interest and what one reckons to be the most probable in the actual circumstances. For unfortunately the course of events which is the most desirable is not always the most probable!”

“It is not the market that is rising or falling at any moment, even if we commonly speak as though it were. In truth, prices move in response to the buying and selling decisions of countless investors, who are constantly considering the likely decisions of countless others”

“Every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.”

“A good record doesn’t necessarily prove good management. Outside economic factors such as the business cycle can make any company look good for a while.”

“The fact that a stock is considered to be growth stock is no assurance against a decline in income or market value during the downtrend of a business cycle, as growth stocks often depreciate as much as other groups.”