Ero Copper reported third-quarter EPS of C$1.7047, 20.05% above the C$1.42 estimate. The company also posted record production and reduced its net debt.
Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO) released results after market close on November 2 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar data show EPS of C$1.7047, compared with an estimate of C$1.42. The company reported record quarterly results, higher copper production than the previous quarter and lower net debt. For Canadian investors, the earnings surprise is only part of the story. Production costs, commodity prices and unchanged full-year copper guidance also matter.
Recent earnings trend
Ero Copper Corp
ERO.TO
ERO.TO
Ero Copper Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.44B
P/E
10.4x
52W high
$56.62
52W low
$29.10
1W change
-6.68%
Beta
1.62
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ERO · as of Oct 22, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ERO stock price to rise 33.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$56.83
+33.4% Upside
Previously C$56.90 on Oct 21, 2026
Current Price
C$42.59
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ERO's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
57.8%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
62.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-48.3%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$35.84
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$40.21 | C$32.94 – C$49.08 |
| 60 trading days | C$37.96 | C$28.64 – C$50.33 |
| 90 trading days | C$35.84 | C$25.38 – C$50.63 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 5 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 1.7047 | 1.4200 | +20.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 1.1600 | 1.0000 | +16.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | 0.9400 | 0.7200 | +30.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 1.4300 | 1.4400 | -0.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.3800 | 0.4500 | -15.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 0.6400 | 0.4600 | +39.1% |
Investor takeaway: EPS beat the calendar estimate by 20.05%, extending Ero’s record to three beats in the last four comparable quarters. The company reported copper production of 18,345 tonnes, C1 cash costs of US$2.51 per pound produced and a roughly US$100 million reduction in net debt, to US$353.5 million. Ero kept its 2026 copper production guidance at 67,500–77,500 tonnes and expects the fourth quarter to be the strongest of the year at both copper operations. The company remains exposed to copper prices, operating costs and execution risks.
C$1.7047 EPS, 20.05% above estimate
Calendar data show ERO.TO’s third-quarter EPS at C$1.7047, versus the C$1.42 estimate. Separately, Ero reported net income attributable to owners of US$116.2 million, or US$1.10 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA of US$200.6 million. The calendar EPS figure and the company’s diluted EPS are different measures, so they shouldn’t be compared as if they were the same.
Bull case
Ero’s latest quarter brought a 20.05% EPS beat, along with higher copper production and gold output than in the previous quarter. Copper production rose 6% to 18,345 tonnes, while gold production at Xavantina increased 23% to 25,258 ounces. Net debt fell by about US$100 million, and Ero lowered its 2026 consolidated copper C1 cash cost guidance to US$2.25–US$2.45 per pound produced. If production gains and lower costs continue, they could support cash generation.
Bear case
An earnings beat doesn’t guarantee further improvement. Ero’s copper operations in Brazil remain exposed to changes in commodity prices, rising costs and execution challenges. Quarterly C1 cash costs were US$2.51 per pound, above the updated full-year guidance range, so delivering the expected cost improvements will be important. The shares also closed at C$42.59, below their 50-day moving average of C$49.52. They fell 21.20% over the month, despite gaining 4.49% on the day.
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