Suncor’s adjusted EPS was C$3.97, above the earnings-calendar estimate of C$3.53. Record cash generation and stronger refining results lifted its third-quarter performance.
Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX: SU) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 3. Adjusted earnings came to C$3.97 per share, 12.5% above the earnings-calendar estimate. The company also reported record quarterly adjusted funds from operations of C$6.71 billion and free funds flow of C$5.20 billion. For Canadian investors, the main takeaways are strong cash returns, lower net debt, improved refining results and lower upstream production than a year ago.
Recent earnings trend
Suncor Energy Inc
SU.TO
SU.TO
Suncor Energy Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$124.49B
P/E
14.1x
Div. yield
2.25%
Div. / share
$2.37
52W high
$112.80
52W low
$56.67
1W change
-1.46%
Beta
0.47
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SU · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SU stock price to rise 9.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$115.55
+9.6% Upside
Previously C$115.20 on Oct 26, 2026
Current Price
C$105.43
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SU's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
31.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
30.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$126.04
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$111.90 | C$100.40 – C$124.71 |
| 60 trading days | C$118.76 | C$101.88 – C$138.44 |
| 90 trading days | C$126.04 | C$104.46 – C$152.08 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 3.9700 | 3.5300 | +12.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-04 | 3.2300 | 3.0800 | +4.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 1.9300 | 1.9300 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-03 | 1.1000 | 1.0300 | +6.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 1.4800 | 1.1400 | +29.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-05 | 0.7100 | 0.7300 | -2.7% |
Investor takeaway: Suncor’s earnings and cash flow improved, supported by stronger upstream price realizations, better refining margins and higher-value sales. The company returned more than C$2 billion to shareholders and cut net debt to C$1.75 billion. But production fell year over year, and the reported earnings beat varies by estimate source: the earnings calendar lists C$3.53, while Zacks reported an adjusted EPS consensus of C$2.35. Keep those benchmarks separate, and watch whether cash generation and operating results hold up in the coming quarters.
C$5.20 billion
Suncor generated a record C$5.20 billion in free funds flow, more than double the C$2.35 billion reported a year earlier. That cash helped the company return more than C$2 billion to shareholders while reducing net debt to C$1.75 billion.
Bull case
Record adjusted funds from operations and free funds flow give Suncor room to reduce debt and return capital to shareholders. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.66 per share and increased planned monthly share repurchases by 50% to C$750 million. It now expects 2026 buybacks to total C$5.5 billion. Refinery utilization reached 95%, refined product sales set a third-quarter record, and net debt fell from C$7.15 billion a year earlier.
Bear case
Suncor’s results remain sensitive to oil prices and refining margins, both of which supported this quarter’s improvement. Upstream production averaged 852,500 barrels per day, down from 870,000 a year earlier, as Syncrude maintenance weighed on output. The planned sale of offshore interests will transfer future investment commitments and liabilities, but it will also remove assets that produced about 17,000 barrels per day during the first nine months of 2026. Higher dividends and buybacks don’t replace the need for steady operating cash flow.
Earnings and estimates
For the quarter ended September 30, Suncor reported adjusted operating earnings of C$4.631 billion, or C$3.97 per share. That was 12.46% above the earnings calendar’s C$3.53 estimate. Zacks reported adjusted EPS of C$2.84 against its consensus estimate of C$2.35, a 20.85% surprise. These are separate estimate benchmarks, so the size of the reported beat depends on the source. The 12.5% headline uses the earnings-calendar estimate.
Net earnings were C$3.814 billion, or C$3.27 per share, compared with C$1.619 billion, or C$1.34 per share, a year earlier. Suncor said higher upstream price realizations and improved refining margins were the main reasons for the stronger adjusted results. See the Suncor stock page for more company details.
Cash flow and shareholder returns
Adjusted funds from operations reached a quarterly record of C$6.705 billion, up from C$3.831 billion in Q3 2025. Free funds flow was C$5.196 billion, compared with C$2.347 billion a year earlier.
Suncor returned C$2.048 billion to shareholders during the quarter, including nearly C$1.4 billion in share repurchases and nearly C$700 million in dividends. After the quarter ended, the company raised planned monthly share repurchases by 50% to C$750 million and increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.66 per share. Net debt fell to C$1.751 billion from C$7.147 billion a year earlier.
Suncor also agreed to sell its interests in Terra Nova, White Rose and West White Rose for C$1.2 billion, with potential additional payments of up to C$350 million tied to future oil prices. The sale is expected to close in early 2027, subject to approvals and other conditions.
Production, refining and share outlook
Upstream production averaged 852,500 barrels per day, down from 870,000 a year earlier but up from 760,900 in Q2. Increased Syncrude maintenance affected oil sands production, partly offset by record third-quarter output at Firebag.
Refinery throughput averaged 487,700 barrels per day, with utilization at 95%. Refined product sales reached a third-quarter record of 676,900 barrels per day.
Suncor’s last close was C$105.43. The supplied analyst-target data show an average target of C$115.55, or 9.6% above that closing price. See the analyst ratings section.
The Wealth Awesome price forecast is a statistical 90-day model, not financial advice. Its mean forecast is C$126.04, with a 68% range of C$104.46 to C$152.08 and a 95% range of C$86.58 to C$183.50. These estimates are uncertain and don’t guarantee future returns.
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