TransAlta reported adjusted earnings of C$0.18 per share in the third quarter, beating the C$0.07 consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA also rose, but revenue and free cash flow fell from a year earlier.
TransAlta Corp. (TSX: TA) released its third-quarter 2026 results before markets opened on November 3. Adjusted earnings came in at C$0.18 per share, 157.1% above the calendar estimate of C$0.07 and up from C$0.16 a year earlier. For Canadian investors, the earnings beat is only part of the picture: adjusted EBITDA increased, while revenue, funds from operations and free cash flow declined year over year. Visit the TransAlta stock page for more company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
TransAlta Corp
TA.TO
TA.TO
TransAlta Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.86B
Div. yield
1.49%
Div. / share
$0.27
52W high
$22.07
52W low
$15.50
1W change
+2.55%
Beta
0.46
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TA · as of Oct 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TA stock price to rise 26.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$23.50
+26.9% Upside
Previously C$23.68 on Sep 23, 2026
Current Price
C$18.52
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
39.8%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
35.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+29.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$20.61
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$19.19 | C$16.73 – C$22.02 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.89 | C$16.38 – C$24.15 |
| 90 trading days | C$20.61 | C$16.24 – C$26.14 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1800 | 0.0700 | +157.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1800 | 0.1600 | +12.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.0600 | -0.0100 | +700.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-27 | -0.2100 | 0.1000 | -310.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -0.0200 | 0.0800 | -125.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-01 | 0.1800 | 0.1100 | +63.6% |
Investor takeaway: TransAlta posted stronger adjusted earnings and EBITDA, with support from fleet optimization and contributions across its generation portfolio. But lower revenue, free cash flow and funds from operations compared with last year make the headline beat less clear-cut. Management reaffirmed its 2026 outlook. Recent asset sales, acquisitions and development projects offer potential for growth, but investors will want to watch how they perform.
C$0.18 adjusted EPS, versus C$0.07 expected
Adjusted earnings per share beat the estimate by 157.1%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10.9% year over year to C$264 million. Revenue fell 12.8% to C$536 million, and free cash flow dropped to C$93 million from C$105 million. So, the earnings beat came with weaker revenue and cash flow.
Bull case
Adjusted EBITDA rose to C$264 million from C$238 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before income taxes increased to C$91 million from C$17 million. Management pointed to high fleet availability, asset optimization and benefits from its environmental credit portfolio. It also said Alberta realized prices stayed well above spot prices through optimization and hedging.
After strong results so far this year, TransAlta reaffirmed its 2026 outlook. In October, the company sold a minority interest in its Oklahoma wind assets for US$305 million before adjustments. It also completed the acquisition of two contracted gas facilities in Colorado, adding 318 MW of capacity.
Bear case
Revenue fell to C$536 million from C$615 million, while production declined to 5,260 GWh from 6,151 GWh. Free cash flow dropped to C$93 million from C$105 million, and funds from operations fell to C$146 million from C$156 million.
The supplied fundamentals snapshot also showed negative trailing-twelve-month EPS of C$0.30 and a negative 1.01% profit margin. The Colorado acquisition and development plans still need to deliver as expected. Investors should also keep an eye on the temporary mothballing of Battle River units and the extended outage at Sundance 6.
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