Timbercreek Financial reports after the market closes on October 28. The latest quarterly EPS consensus is C$0.18, though another earnings calendar lists C$0.13. The company’s last four comparable quarters all missed estimates, so investors will be watching credit costs and distributable income alongside EPS.
Timbercreek Financial Corp. (TSX: TF, TF.TO) is set to report results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Its earnings calendar lists an EPS estimate of C$0.13, while trends data shows a consensus of C$0.18 from two analysts, up from C$0.17 30 days ago. The estimates differ, so check the company’s release and the data source you rely on. Timbercreek is a mortgage lender, making income and loan quality central to the report.
Recent earnings trend
Advertisement
Timbercreek Financial Corp
TF.TO
TF.TO
Timbercreek Financial Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$426.18M
P/E
16.6x
Div. yield
13.42%
Div. / share
$0.69
52W high
$6.84
52W low
$5.07
1W change
-0.96%
Beta
0.93
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TF · as of Oct 15, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TF stock price to rise 23.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$6.38
+23.8% Upside
Previously C$6.63 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$5.15
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TF's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
21.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
19.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$4.31
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$4.85 | C$4.50 – C$5.23 |
| 60 trading days | C$4.57 | C$4.11 – C$5.08 |
| 90 trading days | C$4.31 | C$3.78 – C$4.91 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Advertisement
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | — | 0.1300 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0900 | 0.1700 | -47.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1200 | 0.1600 | -25.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 0.0400 | 0.1600 | -75.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.1000 | 0.1700 | -41.2% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.1500 | 0.1700 | -11.8% |
Advertisement
Investor takeaway: The report offers a clear test, but the estimates alone won’t tell the whole story. Timbercreek missed its listed EPS estimates in each of the last four reported quarters. At the same time, the latest trends data points to estimated year-over-year EPS growth of 80.3%, from C$0.10 a year ago. Reported EPS and distributable income are different measures, so don’t treat them as interchangeable. For Canadian income investors, the key question is whether earnings and credit performance support the company’s dividend profile—not simply whether EPS beats an estimate.
C$0.18 per share
That’s the latest EPS consensus in the trends data, based on two analysts. The earnings calendar lists C$0.13. The trends estimate rose from C$0.17 over the past 30 days, but revisions were mixed: two analysts lowered their estimates, and none raised theirs. Since Timbercreek missed estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, compare the result with the source you use. Also look at credit-loss provisions and distributable income.
Bull case
Timbercreek could keep growing its mortgage portfolio while containing credit stress. In its Q2 2026 results, the company reported C$153.5 million in mortgage originations and said Stage 3 balances had fallen 51.1% from year-end. Its net mortgage portfolio grew 14.9% year over year to C$1.24 billion in Q1. If September-quarter results show that portfolio growth is supporting steady income, investors may see a stronger case for the business and its dividend outlook.
Bear case
Timbercreek’s recent EPS record gives investors reason to be cautious. Actual results came in below estimates in each of the last four comparable quarters, including C$0.09 versus C$0.17 in June 2026. Credit costs also warrant attention. Expected credit losses were C$6.7 million in Q2, up from C$2.1 million a year earlier, after reaching C$3.7 million in Q1. The decline in Stage 3 balances is encouraging, but it doesn’t guarantee lower future losses. If provisions stay high or income weakens, EPS alone may not show the full picture.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Advertisement
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
