Vermilion Energy reported a third-quarter loss per share, despite analysts’ expectations for a profit. The miss adds to a run of uneven earnings results.
Vermilion Energy Inc. (TSX: VET) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of -C$0.23, compared with the calendar estimate of C$0.38. That’s a 160.5% negative surprise. The company reported an EPS beat of C$0.86 in the second quarter, but losses in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2025. It also reported C$237 million in funds flow from operations, more than C$90 million in free cash flow and net debt of C$1.17 billion. These figures give a broader view of the quarter than EPS alone.
Recent earnings trend
Vermilion Energy Inc.
VET.TO
VET.TO
Vermilion Energy Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$2.65B
Div. yield
3.04%
Div. / share
$0.53
52W high
$20.12
52W low
$10.46
1W change
-21.47%
Beta
0.73
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering VET · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast VET stock price to rise 48.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$22.27
+48.5% Upside
Previously C$21.82 on Oct 22, 2026
Current Price
C$15.00
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on VET's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
58.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
52.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-24.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$13.77
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$14.58 | C$11.91 – C$17.83 |
| 60 trading days | C$14.17 | C$10.65 – C$18.84 |
| 90 trading days | C$13.77 | C$9.71 – C$19.52 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | -0.2300 | 0.3800 | -160.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 0.8600 | 0.6700 | +28.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | -0.9200 | 0.2400 | -483.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | -2.8600 | 0.0800 | -3675.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.0200 | 0.1900 | -89.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.4800 | -0.1400 | +442.9% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss is significant, but it doesn’t tell the whole story about Vermilion’s cash generation or debt. Investors can weigh the loss against the company’s reported cash flow and its 2027 production plan. Recent earnings have been volatile: VET beat estimates in one of its last four comparable quarters. Shares closed at C$15.00, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. These figures provide context, not a forecast.
Third-quarter EPS: -C$0.23
The calendar estimate was C$0.38, making the reported result a 160.5% negative surprise. EPS is only one measure of the quarter. Vermilion also reported C$237 million in funds flow from operations and more than C$90 million in free cash flow.
Bull case
Vermilion reported more than C$90 million in third-quarter free cash flow and reduced net debt to C$1.17 billion. Its 2027 plan targets production of 122,000 to 126,000 boe/d. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of C$0.135 per share. If cash generation and debt reduction continue, investors may see the EPS miss as only part of the operating picture.
Bear case
Vermilion missed the calendar EPS estimate by a wide margin. Its trailing-twelve-month EPS was -C$2.93, and its reported profit margin was -24.25%. Earnings have also been inconsistent, with VET beating estimates in only one of its last four comparable quarters. Supplied market data show the share price fell 13.54% in one day and 21.47% in one week. Those declines point to recent weakness but don’t explain its cause.
Earnings results
Vermilion reported third-quarter 2026 EPS of -C$0.23, compared with the calendar estimate of C$0.38. The 160.5% negative surprise was a substantial miss. Recent results have varied: EPS was C$0.86 against an estimate of C$0.67 in the second quarter, -C$0.92 against C$0.24 in the first quarter, and -C$2.86 against C$0.08 in the fourth quarter of 2025. VET beat estimates in one of its last four comparable quarters. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results. EPS alone doesn’t capture the full operating picture.
Cash flow, debt and 2027 plan
In its November 4 results release, Vermilion reported third-quarter funds flow from operations of C$237 million, free cash flow above C$90 million and net debt of C$1.17 billion. Its 2027 budget targets production of 122,000 to 126,000 boe/d. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of C$0.135 per share, payable December 31, 2026, to shareholders of record on December 15. Vermilion said its plan includes a 4% dividend increase, subject to board approval.
These company-reported figures add context to the EPS miss, but don’t remove the risks of volatile earnings and energy markets. See the Vermilion Energy stock page for more information about the company and its shares.
Analyst targets and price model
The supplied analyst data show an average target of C$22.27, compared with the last close of C$15.00. That’s an implied difference of 48.5%. The consensus label compares the average target with the last close; a formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. Treat analyst ratings and price targets as estimates, not guarantees.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day model gives a mean forecast of C$13.77. Its 68% range is C$9.71 to C$19.52, and its 95% range is C$6.85 to C$27.69. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a prediction of VET’s share price. See the VET price prediction page for details.
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