Yangarra Resources reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.0738, 23% above the C$0.06 estimate. Revenue and net income were also higher, but recent share-price weakness and mixed estimate results put the quarter in context.
Yangarra Resources Ltd (TSX: YGR) reported results after market close on October 28 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS came in at C$0.0738, compared with the C$0.06 consensus estimate. The supplied earnings release summary also reports revenue of C$37.5 million, up 54% year over year, net income of C$8.3 million and average production of 10,111 boe/d. YGR.TO last closed at C$1.49, below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day average. See the Yangarra Resources stock page for company and market data.
Recent earnings trend
Yangarra Resources Ltd
YGR.TO
YGR.TO
Yangarra Resources Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$166.84M
P/E
6.6x
52W high
$1.85
52W low
$0.90
1W change
-13.87%
Beta
0.37
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering YGR · as of Nov 4, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast YGR stock price to rise 40.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2.10
+40.9% Upside
Previously C$2.04 on Oct 29, 2026
Current Price
C$1.49
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on YGR's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
50.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
44.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+26.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$1.64
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$1.54 | C$1.29 – C$1.83 |
| 60 trading days | C$1.59 | C$1.24 – C$2.02 |
| 90 trading days | C$1.64 | C$1.21 – C$2.21 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-04 | — | 0.0800 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.0738 | 0.0600 | +23.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.1100 | 0.0500 | +120.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 0.0400 | 0.0600 | -33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 0.0100 | 0.0800 | -87.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 0.0200 | 0.0500 | -60.0% |
Investor takeaway: Yangarra beat the EPS estimate and reported stronger year-over-year revenue. But one quarter doesn’t establish a consistent trend: the company beat estimates in two of its last four comparable quarters. The supplied release summary also puts adjusted net debt at C$111.2 million, so investors should weigh debt and the returns from the drilling program alongside production growth. For Canadian investors, Yangarra remains a small-cap energy company exposed to commodity prices, operating performance and financing conditions.
C$0.0738 EPS, 23% above estimate
Yangarra’s EPS was C$0.0138 above the C$0.06 consensus estimate. Only one analyst contributed to that estimate, so the comparison offers a limited view. Revenue was also above the C$31.5 million consensus: the supplemental Q3 release summary reports C$37.5 million, up 54% year over year.
Bull case
Yangarra reported revenue growth and positive net income, with average production above 10,000 boe/d. The company’s September operations update said it drilled seven wells in the third quarter and planned a winter program focused on Belly River development. If those projects maintain production and generate funds flow, they could strengthen the investment case. The supplied analyst data puts the average target at C$2.10, about 40.9% above the C$1.49 last close. That target is an estimate, not a promised return.
Bear case
The EPS beat comes amid uneven results. Yangarra beat the estimate by 120% in the prior quarter, but missed by 33.3% in March 2025 and 87.5% in December 2025. The supplied Q3 release summary also reports adjusted net debt of C$111.2 million. Lower commodity prices, weaker well performance or higher costs could reduce cash generation and make debt reduction harder. Shares fell 13.87% in the week leading up to the supplied last close, showing that an earnings beat doesn’t remove market risk.
Earnings and operations
For the quarter ended September 30, Yangarra reported EPS of C$0.0738 against an estimate of C$0.06, a 23% positive surprise. The supplemental release summary reports revenue of C$37.5 million, up 54% year over year, and net income of C$8.3 million. Average production was 10,111 boe/d. Revenue also exceeded the C$31.5 million consensus in the supplied calendar data, though that estimate came from one analyst. Treat these comparisons as a useful reference, not a broad measure of analyst expectations.
Yangarra’s recent EPS results have been uneven: it beat estimates in two of the last four comparable quarters. The 120% beat in the previous quarter was followed by misses in March and December 2025. The automatically inserted recent-earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
The company’s September operations update said it drilled seven wells in Q3 and planned a winter program focused on Belly River development, including three wells with different designs. Investors will be watching to see whether the program supports production and cash generation. The supplied Q3 release summary reports adjusted net debt of C$111.2 million, making capital spending and debt management important alongside production.
Yangarra’s Q2 release summary said funds flow from operations rose 68% year over year to C$26.0 million, while wet field conditions delayed some well start-ups. That update provides context on operating conditions but doesn’t predict how the winter program will perform. The company’s latest interim statements and MD&A were reported as filed on SEDAR+.
Analyst targets and price model
The supplied analyst data lists an average target of C$2.10, compared with YGR.TO’s last close of C$1.49. That implies 40.9% upside to the average target. The consensus label is bullish based on the average target versus the last close; a formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. Targets are estimates and can change. See the analyst ratings section for more detail.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model, which isn’t financial advice, gives a mean forecast of C$1.64. Its 68% range is C$1.21 to C$2.21, and its 95% range is C$0.90 to C$2.98. The model reports annualized drift of 26.2% and 30-day volatility of 50.1%. These wide ranges show the uncertainty in possible outcomes; they aren’t reliable price targets. See the price prediction section and the Yangarra Resources stock page for more context.
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