Intact Financial reports after the TSX closes on November 3. After beating earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, the company faces high expectations for its latest results.
Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Tuesday, November 3. The quarter ended September 30. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of C$4.34, with estimates ranging from C$3.63 to C$4.73. The company will hold its earnings call on November 4 at 11:00 a.m. ET. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether earnings can keep pace with last year’s results as revenue grows.
Recent earnings trend
Intact Financial Corporation
IFC.TO
IFC.TO
Intact Financial Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$46.08B
P/E
14.4x
Div. yield
2.14%
Div. / share
$5.60
52W high
$303.79
52W low
$236.92
1W change
-1.48%
Beta
0.31
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IFC · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast IFC stock price to rise 18.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$308.62
+18.4% Upside
Previously C$310.54 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$260.63
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IFC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
17.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
21.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-31.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$232.90
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$251.04 | C$236.23 – C$266.77 |
| 60 trading days | C$241.80 | C$221.88 – C$263.50 |
| 90 trading days | C$232.90 | C$209.62 – C$258.76 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | — | 3.2100 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 4.3300 | 3.4700 | +24.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 4.6100 | 4.0800 | +13.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 5.8900 | 4.6900 | +25.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 4.4600 | 4.2100 | +5.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | 5.2300 | 4.0100 | +30.4% |
Investor takeaway: Intact has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, but that streak doesn’t guarantee another surprise. Analysts expect EPS of C$4.34, down 2.8% from C$4.46 a year earlier, while revenue is forecast to rise 5.3% to C$6.18 billion. Watch for updates on claims and catastrophe exposure. Intact has described an active severe-weather season in Canada, including 13 extreme weather events in May and June. The available calendar data doesn’t include a claims-cost or underwriting forecast, so investors will need to look to the report for more detail.
C$4.34 EPS consensus
The consensus estimate is 2.8% below the C$4.46 Intact reported for the September 2025 quarter. Estimates range from C$3.63 to C$4.73, making the actual result and management’s comments on claims important context for the headline number.
Bull case
Intact has beaten estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, including by 24.78% in the June 2026 quarter. Analysts also expect revenue to keep growing. The company points to its use of data and AI in pricing and risk selection, its claims expertise, and its capital and investment management as strengths. Its climate-resilience work shows a focus on reducing risk before disasters happen, though the grant program doesn’t show a direct near-term earnings benefit.
Bear case
Analysts expect EPS to come in below last year’s result, and the consensus estimate has slipped from C$4.39 to C$4.34 over the past 30 days. Severe weather can raise claims costs for a property and casualty insurer. Intact has said Canada’s 2026 catastrophe season started early and hit hard. The available information doesn’t quantify the financial impact, so catastrophe claims and underwriting results remain key unknowns ahead of the release.
Analysis
Intact will release its third-quarter results after the market closes on November 3. The quarter ended September 30, and the earnings call is scheduled for November 4 at 11:00 a.m. ET. Analysts expect EPS of C$4.34 and revenue of C$6.18 billion. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% year over year, while EPS is expected to fall 2.8%. Three analysts contributed to the revenue estimate. The EPS consensus draws on nine analysts and ranges from C$3.63 to C$4.73.
The EPS consensus has fallen from C$4.39 a month ago to C$4.34. Revisions were mixed: six analysts raised their estimates and four lowered them. These figures show what analysts expect, not what Intact will report. See the Intact Financial stock page for the company’s earnings history and other details.
Analysis
Intact has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters. In June 2026, it reported C$4.33 against an estimate of C$3.47, a 24.78% surprise. In March, EPS was C$4.61 versus C$4.08; in December, it was C$5.89 versus C$4.69; and in September 2025, it was C$4.46 versus C$4.21. The supplied history includes actual and estimated results for 87 comparable quarters. That’s a broad record, but past surprises don’t predict the next result.
This quarter’s C$4.34 EPS consensus is below last year’s C$4.46, even as revenue is expected to grow. When the full report arrives, investors will want to see how premium growth, claims costs and underwriting results compare. Intact recently described an early and severe catastrophe season in Canada, with 13 extreme weather events between May and June. The available information doesn’t say how much those events affected third-quarter claims. Investors should look to the reported results and management’s comments rather than assume a specific earnings impact.
Analysis
The supplied fundamentals show a P/E ratio of about 14.4, a dividend yield of 2.14% and a market capitalization of roughly C$46 billion. In the supplied technical data, IFC.TO last closed at C$262.28, below its 200-day moving average of C$265.27 and above its 50-day average of C$257.15. These figures describe recent share performance, not the earnings outcome.
Analyst price targets: The average analyst target is C$308.62, or 17.7% above the supplied last close of C$262.28. The average target is above the last close, which the available context describes as bullish. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. See the analyst ratings section for target details.
Wealth Awesome price forecast: The statistical 90-day model gives a mean forecast of C$232.90. Its 68% range is C$209.62 to C$258.76, and its 95% range is C$188.67 to C$287.49. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a guarantee. Review the price prediction section alongside your own research.
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