Collective Mining is expected to post another quarterly loss, and its recent results have fallen short of estimates. But for an early-stage miner, investors may care more about drilling progress than whether earnings beat forecasts.
Collective Mining Ltd. (TSX: CNL) is scheduled to report results after markets close on November 11, 2026, for the quarter ended September 30. Two analysts expect a loss of C$0.17 per share. The earnings calendar lists a loss of C$0.13, so check which estimate a data provider uses. As an exploration and development company, Collective has no expected revenue beyond zero. Earnings per share are only one part of the investment picture. Canadian investors can visit the CNL.TO stock page for company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
Collective Mining Ltd
CNL.TO
CNL.TO
Collective Mining Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$1.85B
52W high
$30.12
52W low
$13.76
1W change
+39.85%
Beta
0.88
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CNL · as of Oct 19, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CNL stock price to rise 66.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$33.25
+66.5% Upside
Previously C$33.60 on Sep 29, 2026
Current Price
C$19.97
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CNL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
72.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
65.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-5.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$19.60
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$19.85 | C$15.48 – C$25.45 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.72 | C$13.88 – C$28.04 |
| 90 trading days | C$19.60 | C$12.74 – C$30.15 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-11 | — | -0.1300 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-11 | -0.3100 | -0.1800 | -72.2% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | -0.1800 | -0.1400 | -28.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-30 | -0.1949 | -0.1000 | -94.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | -0.1800 | -0.1300 | -38.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-13 | -0.1500 | -0.1400 | -7.1% |
Investor takeaway: The forecasts point to another loss, not a profitable quarter. Collective has missed EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, posting losses of C$0.18 to C$0.31 per share against smaller expected losses. The two-analyst consensus for the September quarter is a loss of C$0.17 per share. It hasn’t changed in 30 days, though both recorded revisions were downward. With only two analysts contributing, treat the estimate with caution. The report may shed light on exploration spending and corporate costs, but the available information doesn’t include guidance or operating metrics to help forecast results. Recent company news has focused on Apollo drilling in Colombia, including a record high-grade intercept reported in early November. For the longer-term investment case, that update may matter more than a quarterly EPS variance.
C$0.17 loss per share
Two analysts expect Collective to lose C$0.17 per share in the September quarter. The estimate is unchanged over 30 days, but it’s based on a small analyst sample. Collective’s last four reported quarters all showed larger losses than analysts expected.
Bull case
The optimistic case depends on exploration potential, not near-term earnings. In an October update, Collective said new Apollo assays extended mineralized areas in the Shallow Halo and Ramp zones. A November 4 market report also noted a record high-grade Apollo intercept. More drilling and resource work could give investors a clearer picture of the project, but exploration results don’t guarantee an economically viable mine.
The average analyst target is C$33.25, compared with the supplied last close of C$18.89, suggesting 76% upside. That’s a comparison based on analyst estimates, not a promised return. Formal ratings aren’t available for this Canadian listing. See the analyst targets for CNL and consider the risks and assumptions behind the exploration case.
Bear case
Collective’s recent earnings record is a clear warning: it missed estimates in all four of its last reported quarters, and trailing EPS is negative C$0.81. With no revenue expected, the upcoming report may offer little evidence of commercial progress. Exploration companies also face uncertainty around drilling results, development costs, and access to funding. The available company information doesn’t show that Apollo or Guayabales will become producing mines.
The share price is below its 200-day moving average of C$21.06, despite a recent sharp rebound, and remains well below its 52-week high of C$30.12. A high analyst target doesn’t remove the risk that project setbacks or financing needs could weigh on the share price.
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