NGEx Minerals reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. Investors are also watching its next Lunahuasi drilling campaign and a shareholder-approved spin-out.
NGEx Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NGEX; NGEX.TO) reported third-quarter 2026 results after market close on November 5. For the quarter ended September 30, the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of -C$0.05, compared with the C$0.07 loss analysts expected. That’s a 28.6% positive surprise: the loss was smaller than forecast.
Recent earnings trend
NGEx Minerals Ltd.
NGEX.TO
NGEX.TO
NGEx Minerals Ltd.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.72B
P/E
127.9x
52W high
$32.41
52W low
$19.79
1W change
+7.35%
Beta
2.00
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering NGEX · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast NGEX stock price to rise 64.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$35.72
+64.2% Upside
Previously C$35.50 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$21.75
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on NGEX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
53.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
56.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$18.19
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.49 | C$17.05 – C$24.63 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.31 | C$14.88 – C$25.05 |
| 90 trading days | C$18.19 | C$13.23 – C$25.02 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | -0.0500 | -0.0700 | +28.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | -0.0600 | -0.0900 | +33.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-11 | -0.1461 | -0.1385 | -5.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-19 | -0.1500 | -0.1200 | -25.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-14 | -0.1000 | -0.0400 | -150.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-11 | -0.0700 | -0.0500 | -40.0% |
NGEx is an exploration-stage miner, so quarterly earnings are only part of the picture. Investors are also following work at its Lunahuasi project in Argentina and the planned distribution of Valiente Resources shares.
Investor takeaway: NGEx beat the EPS estimate, but its recent record is mixed: it beat estimates in two of its last four comparable quarters. The next major test is Phase 5 drilling at Lunahuasi, planned with up to eight rigs. The campaign will test areas beyond the existing drill pattern.
Under the spin-out plan, shareholders are expected to receive one-fifth of a Valiente share for each NGEx share. The effective date is November 12, 2026. For Canadian investors, the key distinction is that a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss does not prove the project’s longer-term potential. Exploration remains high risk.
EPS: -C$0.05 versus -C$0.07 estimated
NGEx’s loss was C$0.02 per share smaller than expected, resulting in a 28.6% positive surprise. The company also beat estimates in the previous quarter, reporting EPS of -C$0.06 against an expected -C$0.09. Results were mixed in the two quarters before that.
Bull case
Phase 4 drilling at Lunahuasi expanded and improved the company’s understanding of several mineralized zones. NGEx says the deposit remains open in all directions. Phase 5 will test those zones further and explore new targets.
Initial metallurgical tests found copper recoveries of 92% to 98% and gold recoveries of 61% to 96% in the samples tested. The Valiente spin-out could also give shareholders separate exposure to the Valle Ancho project, if the transaction is completed and the planned listing goes ahead.
Bear case
A smaller-than-expected loss does not show that the project is economically viable or that NGEx can generate operating cash flow. The company reported a 0.00% profit margin, and exploration results remain uncertain. Its EPS record is mixed, with two beats and two misses in the last four comparable quarters.
NGEx shares also closed below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A supplied statistical forecast points lower over the next 90 days. Neither indicator predicts what will happen, but both reflect the volatility and uncertainty investors face.
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