Intact Financial reported third-quarter EPS of C$3.63, above the C$3.01 estimate. But catastrophe losses and lower year-over-year earnings put the beat in context.
Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC) reported results after markets closed on November 3 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS came in at C$3.63, 20.6% above the estimate. Revenue grew 5%, and operating return on equity was 16%. Catastrophe losses of C$660 million weighed on results. For Canadian investors, the quarter showed solid performance across several insurance lines, but also how weather losses can make earnings uneven. See the IFC.TO stock page for more company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
Intact Financial Corporation
IFC.TO
IFC.TO
Intact Financial Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$48.45B
P/E
16.9x
Div. yield
2.03%
Div. / share
$5.74
52W high
$303.79
52W low
$236.92
1W change
+5.90%
Beta
0.31
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IFC · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast IFC stock price to rise 13.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$312.15
+13.1% Upside
Previously C$308.62 on Oct 26, 2026
Current Price
C$276.00
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IFC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
27.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+5.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$281.20
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$277.72 | C$252.57 – C$305.37 |
| 60 trading days | C$279.45 | C$244.35 – C$319.60 |
| 90 trading days | C$281.20 | C$238.57 – C$331.45 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-09 | — | 4.8300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 3.6300 | 3.0100 | +20.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 4.3300 | 3.4700 | +24.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 4.6100 | 4.0800 | +13.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 5.8900 | 4.6900 | +25.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 4.4600 | 4.2100 | +5.9% |
Investor takeaway: Intact beat the estimate, but reported net income and EPS from continuing operations were down from a year earlier. Operating ROE remained strong, and the company maintained its quarterly common dividend at C$1.47. Investors may want to watch catastrophe claims, personal property underwriting and UK&I execution, along with growth and capital returns. Intact repurchased about C$200 million of shares in Q3 and nearly C$600 million over the past 12 months.
C$3.63 EPS, 20.6% above estimate
Calendar data shows third-quarter EPS of C$3.63, compared with an estimate of C$3.01. Intact has beaten estimates in each of its past four reported quarters. Comparable actual and estimate data is available for 88 quarters, and the recent earnings trend table shows the results quarter by quarter.
For the next fiscal period, nine analysts expect EPS of C$4.34, 2.8% below the year-ago figure of C$4.46. Three analysts expect revenue of C$6.18 billion, which would be 5.3% growth.
Bull case
Intact grew its top line by 5% and posted a 16% operating ROE and a 94% overall combined ratio, even though catastrophe losses were four points above expectations. The US segment’s combined ratio was 85.2%, its 13th straight quarter below 90%. In Canada, personal auto premiums rose 10%, and the combined ratio was 91.2%.
Management also said AI-related work generates close to C$250 million in recurring pretax earnings. It expects that figure to double within 24 months.
Bear case
Catastrophe losses reached C$660 million and helped push Canada personal property’s combined ratio to 105%. Excluding catastrophe losses, the ratio was 72%. UK&I growth was flat, and its 94.1% combined ratio remained above the company’s target of moving toward 90%.
Intact expects its consolidated expense ratio to be at the higher end of the 33%–34% range in 2026. And despite the estimate beat, net income and EPS from continuing operations were lower than a year earlier. The results don’t mean earnings volatility has gone away.
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