Gibson Energy’s third-quarter earnings came in 29.4% above estimates. The company also reported record adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. The results point to stronger cash generation, though investors should keep an eye on debt, project delivery and uneven market conditions.
Gibson Energy Inc. (TSX: GEI.TO) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar EPS was C$0.44, compared with an estimate of C$0.34—a C$0.10, or 29.4%, beat. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached a record C$193 million, while infrastructure adjusted EBITDA set a record of C$177 million. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether stronger cash flow can support the dividend and growth plans while the company reduces debt.
Recent earnings trend
Gibson Energy Inc.
GEI.TO
GEI.TO
Gibson Energy Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.43B
P/E
26.4x
Div. yield
5.59%
Div. / share
$1.78
52W high
$34.66
52W low
$21.91
1W change
-7.67%
Beta
0.57
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GEI · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast GEI stock price to rise 10.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$34.57
+10.0% Upside
Previously C$34.29 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$31.44
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GEI's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
25.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+2.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$31.73
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$31.54 | C$28.93 – C$34.38 |
| 60 trading days | C$31.63 | C$28.00 – C$35.74 |
| 90 trading days | C$31.73 | C$27.33 – C$36.84 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-16 | — | 0.4300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-01 | 0.4400 | 0.3400 | +29.4% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-26 | 0.3700 | 0.3000 | +23.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | 0.3100 | 0.2800 | +10.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-17 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 0.2800 | 0.2900 | -3.4% |
Investor takeaway: Distributable cash flow rose to C$120 million from C$86 million a year earlier, and the trailing payout ratio fell to 82%. But strong marketing results contributed to the quarter, and management expects that business to slow seasonally in Q4. Gibson’s consolidated net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio is 3.9x, down from earlier levels but still above its long-term target of 3.0–3.5x. Investors will want to track the C$0.45 quarterly dividend alongside progress on debt reduction.
C$0.44 EPS, 29.4% above estimate
Calendar EPS of C$0.44 topped the C$0.34 estimate. Gibson also reported C$193 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and C$120 million in distributable cash flow for the third quarter of 2026. All figures are in Canadian dollars.
Bull case
Infrastructure adjusted EBITDA reached a record C$177 million, up C$23 million from a year earlier. Chauvin, higher throughput and asset optimization contributed to the increase. Wink-to-Gateway entered service, and Gibson approved a Chauvin pipeline expansion that is expected to lift system capacity by about 50%. Service is targeted to begin in the first half of 2028. Distributable cash flow rose C$34 million year over year, bringing the trailing payout ratio down to 82%.
Bear case
Marketing also helped lift results. Adjusted EBITDA in the segment rose to C$35 million from C$7 million a year earlier, supported by strong refining margins and better crude marketing opportunities. Management expects Moose Jaw to see a normal seasonal slowdown in Q4. Gateway faces tough export economics because of high tanker rates and vessel mix. Low inventories and backwardation also limit traditional crude storage opportunities. Leverage remains above Gibson’s long-term target, so debt reduction and on-time project delivery remain important tests.
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