First Capital REIT’s operating FFO per unit rose 9.2% from a year earlier. Occupancy stayed high, and renewal rents continued to climb.
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX: FCR.UN) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 2. Net income was $0.54 per diluted unit, up from $0.31 a year earlier. Operating funds from operations (FFO) rose to $0.36 per unit from $0.33.
Recent earnings trend
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
FCR-UN.TO
FCR-UN.TO
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.92B
P/E
4.6x
52W high
$23.37
52W low
$17.85
1W change
+2.10%
Beta
0.88
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FCR-UN · as of Oct 23, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FCR-UN stock price to rise 4.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$24.36
+4.4% Upside
Previously C$24.41 on Oct 16, 2026
Current Price
C$23.34
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FCR-UN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
5.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
6.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+13.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$24.45
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$23.70 | C$23.23 – C$24.19 |
| 60 trading days | C$24.07 | C$23.39 – C$24.77 |
| 90 trading days | C$24.45 | C$23.61 – C$25.32 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 0.5384 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | 0.1122 | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.4288 | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 3.9987 | — | — |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.3100 | — | — |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | 0.2956 | — | — |
The calendar EPS figure of $0.5384 has no accompanying estimate, so there’s no basis for an actual-versus-consensus comparison. For Canadian investors, the more useful measures are same-property net operating income (NOI), leasing, occupancy and debt.
Investor takeaway: FCR.UN delivered stronger operating FFO and healthy leasing results. But the increase in net income was partly due to a larger non-cash gain in the fair value of investment properties. Investors should separate recurring property cash flow from accounting gains and watch leverage: net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 8.9 times.
Operating FFO per unit: $0.36
Operating FFO per unit rose from $0.33 in the third quarter of 2025. Total operating FFO increased by $6.9 million, mainly because of higher NOI. Higher corporate costs and interest expense partly offset the gain.
Bull case
Operating FFO per diluted unit rose 9.2% to $0.36, mainly on higher NOI. Same-property NOI grew 5.2%, or 5.6% excluding bad-debt expense and lease-termination fees. First-year rent on renewals increased 13.2%, and portfolio occupancy was 96.9%. Net asset value per unit rose to $23.16 from $22.29 a year earlier.
Bear case
Portfolio occupancy slipped to 96.9% from 97.1% a year earlier. Same-property NOI growth, excluding the specified items, slowed to 5.6% from 6.4%. Net debt reached $4.12 billion, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 8.9 times. Quarterly net income of $116.1 million also reflected a $47.9 million year-over-year increase in the fair value of investment properties. That non-cash gain isn’t recurring operating income.
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