Enerflex reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of US$129 million and free cash flow of US$102 million. Its calendar EPS came in 29.8% above estimates.
Enerflex Ltd. (TSX: EFX) reported results for the third quarter of 2026, which ended September 30. Calendar EPS was C$0.74, compared with the C$0.57 estimate. The company also reported record Engineered Systems bookings and backlog, higher operating cash flow than a year earlier, and an approximately 17% increase in its quarterly dividend. Revenue fell, though, so investors should weigh the earnings surprise and cash generation against the weaker top line.
Recent earnings trend
Enerflex Ltd.
EFX.TO
EFX.TO
Enerflex Ltd.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$3.80B
P/E
38.0x
Div. yield
0.37%
Div. / share
$0.12
52W high
$39.85
52W low
$17.55
1W change
-5.21%
Beta
1.93
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering EFX · as of Nov 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast EFX stock price to rise 62.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$50.63
+62.7% Upside
Previously C$50.88 on Oct 28, 2026
Current Price
C$31.12
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on EFX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
71.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
53.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+30.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$34.67
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$32.26 | C$25.20 – C$41.30 |
| 60 trading days | C$33.44 | C$23.58 – C$47.43 |
| 90 trading days | C$34.67 | C$22.60 – C$53.18 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-24 | — | 0.6300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.7400 | 0.5700 | +29.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.6000 | 0.4700 | +27.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.5200 | 0.5200 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | -0.6525 | -0.0600 | -987.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.5900 | 0.5800 | +1.7% |
Investor takeaway: Enerflex paired a strong EPS surprise with US$102 million in free cash flow, a bank-adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x, and a record Engineered Systems backlog of US$2.136 billion. But revenue fell 19.8% year over year to US$623 million, and adjusted EBITDA declined from US$145 million to US$129 million. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether Enerflex can turn its growing project pipeline—particularly behind-the-meter gas-fired power projects—into steady earnings and cash flow.
US$2.136 billion
Enerflex’s Engineered Systems backlog reached a record US$2.136 billion on September 30, 2026, nearly double the US$1.071 billion reported a year earlier. The company’s growth depends on turning that backlog into completed projects and cash flow.
Bull case
Enerflex generated US$147 million in operating cash flow, up from US$74 million a year earlier, and reported US$102 million in free cash flow. Quarterly Engineered Systems bookings hit a record US$1.024 billion, while backlog reached US$2.136 billion. The company also said its behind-the-meter natural gas-fired power backlog topped 1.75 gigawatts, including awards secured in early Q4. Lower net debt and a higher dividend strengthen the case for shareholder returns.
Bear case
Revenue fell to US$623 million from US$777 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA declined from US$145 million to US$129 million. The calendar EPS surprise doesn’t remove the need to deliver on the backlog, protect margins, and maintain cash flow. Enerflex’s net earnings margin was 2.94% in the supplied fundamentals snapshot, leaving little room for execution setbacks.
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