Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp reported quarterly EPS of C$0.22, below the C$0.25 estimate. Revenue and net income also fell year over year, and the mortgage portfolio continued to shrink.
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX: AI) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, before market open on November 6. EPS of C$0.22 missed the C$0.25 estimate by 12.0%. This was the fourth consecutive miss against estimates for a comparable quarter. The shortfall widened from 3.85% in each of the two earlier quarters to 4.0% in Q2 and 12.0% this quarter. Revenue fell 11.0% year over year to C$18.7 million, while net income declined 11.6% to C$10.5 million. Atrium kept its regular monthly dividend at C$0.0775 per share for 2027.
Recent earnings trend
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp
AI.TO
AI.TO
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$546.80M
P/E
11.4x
Div. yield
2.06%
Div. / share
$0.23
52W high
$11.86
52W low
$10.13
1W change
+1.71%
Beta
0.82
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AI · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast AI stock price to rise 8.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$12.27
+8.5% Upside
Previously C$12.39 on Oct 27, 2026
Current Price
C$11.31
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AI's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
14.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
14.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-14.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$10.75
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$11.12 | C$10.59 – C$11.68 |
| 60 trading days | C$10.93 | C$10.20 – C$11.72 |
| 90 trading days | C$10.75 | C$9.87 – C$11.70 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-25 | — | 0.2600 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-06 | 0.2200 | 0.2500 | -12.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.2400 | 0.2500 | -4.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-12 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
Investor takeaway: Earnings, revenue and the mortgage portfolio all declined on the figures provided. The portfolio was C$842.8 million, down from C$892.5 million at 2025 year-end, as repayments exceeded new advances. Investors assessing the income profile should also consider the C$31.0 million credit-loss allowance, equal to 3.57% of the gross portfolio. The unchanged dividend offers continuity, but doesn’t answer questions about lending activity, portfolio direction or credit performance.
C$0.22 EPS, 12.0% below estimate
Atrium’s quarterly EPS of C$0.22 was below both the C$0.25 estimate and the C$0.25 reported a year earlier. The supplied figures show misses in each of the last four comparable periods: 12.0% in September, 4.0% in June, and 3.85% in both March and December. The recent earnings trend table shows the quarter-by-quarter comparison.
Bull case
Atrium remained profitable, with net income of C$10.5 million, and kept its regular monthly dividend unchanged for 2027. The average analyst price target of C$12.27 is 8.5% above the last close of C$11.31. That target is an estimate, not a guaranteed return. The company’s ability to sustain earnings and lending volumes remains central to the case.
Bear case
This was Atrium’s fourth consecutive comparable-quarter EPS miss, and the latest shortfall was the largest. Revenue and net income fell year over year, while repayments exceeding new advances reduced the mortgage portfolio. Investors should also monitor the credit-loss allowance alongside loan performance. At the reported close, shares were below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That technical snapshot doesn’t explain the company’s business outlook.
Analysis
Atrium reported EPS of C$0.22 for the quarter ended September 30, compared with an estimate of C$0.25, a 12.0% miss. EPS was C$0.25 in the year-ago comparison provided with the results. Revenue fell 11.0% year over year to C$18.7 million, and net income declined 11.6% to C$10.5 million. This was the fourth consecutive quarter below estimates in the supplied comparable-quarter history. For more company information, see the Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp stock page.
Analysis
Atrium’s mortgage portfolio stood at C$842.8 million on September 30, down from C$892.5 million at 2025 year-end. The company said repayments exceeded new advances. Its credit-loss allowance was C$31.0 million, or 3.57% of the gross portfolio. Atrium also kept its regular monthly dividend at C$0.0775 per share for 2027. The unchanged dividend offers income-focused investors continuity, but portfolio growth and credit quality remain important to watch. The supplied Q2 update said lending activity was showing early improvement, though it remained below historical averages.
Analysis
The average analyst price target is C$12.27, compared with the last close of C$11.31, implying 8.5% upside to the average target. The supplied rating label is Moderately Bullish, based on the average target relative to the last close. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. See the analyst price targets for details. Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$10.75, with a 68% range of C$9.87 to C$11.70 and a 95% range of C$9.07 to C$12.74. The model’s annualized drift is -14.2%. This statistical model isn’t financial advice or a promise of future performance. See the price forecast section for details.
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