Aris Mining reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.35, below the C$0.39 estimate. The miss ends a three-quarter run of earnings beats, despite reported Q3 gold production of 69.3 thousand ounces.
Aris Mining Corporation (TSX: ARIS) released results after market close on November 4 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS was C$0.35, 10.3% below the C$0.39 estimate. The company had beaten estimates in each of the previous three comparable quarters, including C$0.47 against C$0.43 in the prior quarter. For Canadian investors, the question is whether this is a one-quarter setback or a sign that results are becoming less predictable. The available data doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margin comparisons, so it doesn’t show what caused the miss.
Recent earnings trend
Aris Mining Corporation
ARIS.TO
ARIS.TO
Aris Mining Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.55B
P/E
10.9x
52W high
$31.47
52W low
$14.95
1W change
+9.50%
Beta
2.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ARIS · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ARIS stock price to rise 87.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$41.39
+87.9% Upside
Previously C$40.87 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$22.02
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ARIS's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
63.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
64.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-48.7%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$18.50
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.78 | C$16.70 – C$25.85 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.61 | C$14.39 – C$26.71 |
| 90 trading days | C$18.50 | C$12.67 – C$27.01 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.6300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.3500 | 0.3900 | -10.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.4700 | 0.4300 | +9.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.6000 | 0.5900 | +1.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | 0.4600 | 0.4300 | +7.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 0.3600 | 0.3600 | +0.0% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss is clear, but Aris Mining has still beaten estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. Company-news headlines report Q3 gold production of 69.3 thousand ounces and year-to-date production of 217.3 thousand ounces. However, the available financial details don’t explain how production relates to the EPS shortfall. Next-quarter EPS consensus is C$0.59, based on two analysts, down from C$0.61 30 days ago. That small analyst sample makes the estimate uncertain. ARIS.TO shares closed at C$22.02, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. See the Aris Mining stock page for company and market information.
C$0.35 EPS, versus C$0.39 estimated
EPS was 10.3% below the estimate for the quarter ended September 30. After three straight estimate beats, this result breaks the recent pattern.
Bull case
Aris Mining beat estimates in three of its last four comparable quarters. The supplied fundamentals snapshot also shows a 23.68% profit margin and trailing-twelve-month EPS of C$2.02. A company-news headline reports Q3 gold production of 69.3 thousand ounces, along with higher year-to-date adjusted EBITDA and net earnings than in 2025. That provides some positive operating context, but the available information doesn’t include the year-over-year figures or explain the EPS miss. The average analyst target of C$41.39 is well above the C$22.02 closing price, though analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees.
Bear case
EPS missed the C$0.39 estimate by 10.3%, ending a three-quarter run of beats. Next-quarter consensus has slipped from C$0.61 to C$0.59 over the past 30 days, based on just two analysts. There’s no revenue consensus available. The shares are below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the supplied 90-day statistical model forecasts a lower average price. Mining results and earnings can fluctuate, and the available information doesn’t explain the cause of this quarter’s miss.
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