Transat AT Inc faced significant challenges in its latest earnings report, highlighting the impact of soaring fuel costs and competitive pressures.
In its third-quarter earnings release, Transat AT Inc (TRZ.TO) reported a substantial earnings miss, with an adjusted net loss of $89 million, or $2.18 per share, compared to analysts' estimates of a loss of $1.62 per share. This 34.6% discrepancy underscores the company's ongoing struggles amid rising operational costs and intense market competition.
Recent earnings trend
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Transat AT Inc
TRZ.TO
TRZ.TO
Transat AT Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$82.48M
P/E
0.3x
52W high
$3.10
52W low
$2.00
1W change
-9.46%
Beta
1.07
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TRZ
Wall Street analysts forecast TRZ stock price to rise 7.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2.16
+7.5% Upside
Current Price
C$2.01
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TRZ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
38.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$1.68
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$1.89 | C$1.66 โ C$2.16 |
| 60 trading days | C$1.78 | C$1.48 โ C$2.16 |
| 90 trading days | C$1.68 | C$1.33 โ C$2.12 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-09-10 | -2.1800 | -1.6200 | -34.6% |
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-06-10 | -2.5800 | -0.6700 | -285.1% |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-03-09 | -1.1800 | -1.3600 | +13.2% |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-12-17 | -0.4200 | 0.2100 | -300.0% |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-09-10 | -0.1200 | -0.1300 | +7.7% |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-11 | 0.1800 | -0.8900 | +120.2% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should note the persistent challenges facing Transat, particularly the impact of fuel inflation and competitive pricing, which have led to a significant decline in profitability. Moving forward, the company's focus on capacity discipline and operational adjustments may provide some relief, but the near-term outlook remains precarious.
Adjusted Net Loss of $89 Million, or $2.18 per Share
This represents a stark contrast to the expected loss of $1.62 per share, highlighting the severe impact of rising fuel costs and competitive pressures on profitability.
Bull case
Transat's transatlantic network is performing well, and demand for travel remains strong. The company is also working to manage costs and improve liquidity through government financing, which could help stabilize its financial position over time.
Bear case
The company's significant net loss and ongoing fuel cost pressures, along with fierce competition in the Canadian travel market, raise concerns about its ability to return to profitability. Additionally, the lack of immediate plans for capacity growth could limit revenue potential.
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