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Stock: Boralex (TSX: BLX)
Quick take: A diversified renewables operator (wind, solar, hydro) trading well below street targets, with a BUY consensus and strong earnings reacceleration into next year. Balance-sheet leverage is the watch-out, but indexed PPAs support visibility.
Major developments this week
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Market performance: Flat-to-green week (+0.2% 5-day) while the sector rallied—BLX lagged peers, keeping the entry compelling.
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Catalyst on deck: Q3/FQ3 results due Nov 7, 2025 — investors will focus on pricing/indexation benefits, execution on projects, and leverage/coverage.
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Street tweaks: Mixed estimate revisions recently (some downward for FY25, one upward for FY26 next-qtr), but the BUY stance and target spread remain intact.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $28.32 |
| Weekly Move (5-day) | +0.2% |
| Market Cap | US$2.09B |
| P/E (TTM) | n/a (loss) |
| Forward P/E | 20.1 |
| 52-Week Range | $24.40 – $34.25 |
| YTD Return | +0.3% |
| Dividend Yield (fwd) | ~2.3% |
Analyst Insights
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | BUY |
| Avg. Target Price | $38.63 |
| Upside Potential | +36.39% vs $28.32 |
| Breakdown (8 analysts) | Strong Buy: 5 • Buy: 1 • Hold: 2 • Sell: 0 • Strong Sell: 0 |
Read: The street sees meaningful upside as earnings normalize and growth projects roll in, despite leverage and execution risks.
Recent News snapshot
No specific headlines in your dataset this week. Instead, here’s what’s immediately relevant:
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Earnings approaching (Nov 7, 2025): Expect updates on revenue indexation, asset availability, and project pipeline.
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Estimate drift: FY25 EPS trimmed by several analysts over the last 30 days; FY26 next-qtr estimate saw at least one upward revision—reflecting near-term noise but medium-term confidence.
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Dividend cadence: Forward yield ~2.3%; last ex-div date was Aug 29, 2025.
Growth Indicators
| Growth Metric | Boralex |
|---|---|
| Sales Growth (Next Year) | +13.8% |
| EPS Growth (Next Year) | +69.2% |
| 5-yr EPS Growth Estimate | +47.7% |
Context: After a tough comparables year, models point to a sharp EPS re-acceleration (pricing indexation + volume + mix).
Quality, Value & Balance Sheet — what stands out
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Valuation vs peers: EV/EBITDA 14.6× (near sector), P/B 1.9×, P/S 3.5×; Forward P/E 20× for a renewables developer with re-accelerating EPS.
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Profitability: Operating margin 23.1% (solid), but net margin −1.2% from transitory items—watch normalization with the next print.
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Balance sheet: D/E 2.9 and interest coverage 1.3× = leverage is the key risk to monitor.
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Risk markers: Altman Z-Score 0.5 (distress zone) → execution, refinancing terms, and project timing matter.
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Defensiveness: Low beta (0.34) and long-term indexed fixed-price contracts support cash-flow visibility.
Technical & Momentum (quick read)
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RSI: 56.4 (neutral-positive)
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Price vs 52-wk high: 82.7% (headroom to recover)
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Price vs 52-wk low: 116.1% (off the floor)
One-Look Summary (shareable)
| Aspect | Snapshot |
|---|---|
| Thesis | Diversified renewables operator with indexed PPAs and earnings re-acceleration into FY26 |
| Catalysts | Nov 7 earnings; pipeline updates; financing cadence |
| Risks | Leverage & interest coverage; project delays; weather variability |
| Best for | Growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors who can tolerate balance-sheet risk for upside |
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Qayyum Rajan, CFA
Qayyum is the CEO of Wealth Awesome, a leading Canadian personal finance publication. As a CFA charterholder with extensive experience in fintech, data science, and quantitative finance, he brings a unique analytical perspective to investing and wealth management.
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