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Stock: Waste Connections (TSX: WCN)
Quick take: Defensive moat + steady pricing + M&A flywheel . Shares eased recently, but analysts still see upside and dividend growth ticking along. Great “sleep-at-night” compounding story.
Major Developments (this week & very recent)
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Market performance: Flat-to-soft week (+0.2% over 5 days) while the market rose—setting up a more attractive entry.
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Quarter wrapped: Last reported quarter 09/30/25; next set of results due 02/11/26—watch price/mix, volumes, and margin cadence.
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Dividend cadence: Upcoming ex-dividend: 11/05/25; firm’s multi-year streak of double-digit dividend growth continues.
Key Metrics (as of Monday’s close)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $244.72 |
| Weekly Move (5-day) | +0.2% |
| Market Cap | US$44.9B |
| P/E (TTM) | 72.7 |
| Forward P/E | 43.1 |
| 52-Week Range | $236.00 – $284.73 |
| YTD Return | −0.3% |
| Dividend Yield (fwd) | ~0.8% |
Analyst Insights
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | STRONG BUY |
| Average Target Price | $291.33 |
| Upside Potential | +19.05% vs $244.72 |
| Breakdown (22 analysts) | Strong Buy: 17 • Buy: 2 • Hold: 3 • Sell: 0 • Strong Sell: 0 |
Read: Street remains firmly bullish—visibility on pricing and tuck-in M&A keeps the long-term model durable, even with a premium multiple.
Recent/Notable Items
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Outlook steady: Post-quarter, estimates for FY25/FY26 were tweaked but remain broadly stable; next catalyst is Feb 11, 2026 earnings.
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Dividend growth on track: Ex-div Nov 5, 2025; five-year dividend CAGR in the low double digits underscores shareholder return focus.
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Resilience vs. beta: Low 1-yr beta (0.25) continues to make WCN a defensive compounder during choppier markets.
Growth Indicators
| Growth Metric | Waste Connections |
|---|---|
| Sales Growth (Next Year) | +5.8% |
| EPS Growth (Next Year) | +10.6% |
| 5-yr EPS Growth Estimate | +6.5% |
Context: Growth is driven by price, disciplined acquisitions, and route density—not hype. That’s why this name compounds quietly over cycles.
Quality, Value & Financials (why it works long-term)
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Quality: Gross margin 42.1%, operating 18.8%—strong for a capital-heavy service.
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Cash generation: P/FCF 36.6 (rich but consistent with defensive, visible FCF).
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Balance sheet: D/E 1.1, interest coverage 3.4×—manageable within the sector’s stable cash flows.
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Moat: Integrated footprint (landfills + transfer + recycling) supports pricing power and sticky local share.
Technical & Momentum
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RSI: 57.3 (neutral-positive)
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Price vs 52-wk high: 86% (room to run)
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Beta (1-yr): 0.25 (low volatility)
One-Look Summary (shareable)
| Aspect | Snapshot |
|---|---|
| Thesis | Defensive waste operator with pricing power, steady growth, and dividend CAGR |
| Catalysts | Feb 11 earnings; pricing/mix updates; tuck-in M&A |
| Risks | Multiple is premium; leverage; macro volume softness |
| Best For | Long-term, low-beta dividend growth portfolios |
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Qayyum Rajan, CFA
Qayyum is the CEO of Wealth Awesome, a leading Canadian personal finance publication. As a CFA charterholder with extensive experience in fintech, data science, and quantitative finance, he brings a unique analytical perspective to investing and wealth management.
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